A massive wave of loan maturities is about to hit the Los Angeles commercial real estate market, with potentially transformative implications for property sales, according to Anna Kampling, First Vice President at CBRE.
“From 2025 to 2030 in all asset classes, in Los Angeles, there’s 146.8 billion in loans,” Kampling reveals, outlining a staggering volume of debt that will need to be refinanced or resolved in the coming years.
Kampling points to specific pressure points in the near term. “There’s like 12.45 billion in maturities in 2026 and 15.93 billion in 2027,” she says, suggesting these years could mark a significant turning point for market activity.
This concentration of maturities, combined with current market conditions, is already influencing owner behavior. “The market as a whole from the past three years is like, frothier than ever right now,” Kampling observes. “I think people are starting to really, really need to sell.”
Unlike previous periods where lenders might have been more accommodating, Kampling sees a shift in approach. “Banks are taking back the assets, for sure,” she says. “But they’re not operators… they just are trying to get out whole.”
This marks a significant change from recent years, according to Kampling. “I think prior to this year, banks were just extending, extending, extending, and now they’re like, ‘I actually need my money.'”
The distress isn’t affecting all owners equally, Kampling notes. “It’s not really institutions, unless it’s office,” she explains. “It’s more like the mom and pop. Even though they might have made it big, they might have made some bad investment choices.”
Certain property types are showing particular vulnerability. “There was like a co-living theme that was going on for a while that failed miserably when COVID hit,” Kampling says. “So you’re seeing a lot of co-living deals coming online.”
CBRE has developed internal tracking systems to help navigate this wave of maturities. Kampling describes creating loan maturity tracking software that spans “all the commercial sectors” to identify potential sellers before distress situations develop.
“There’s two ways usually people or funds or institutions are selling,” Kampling explains. “It’s usually based on their loan, when their loan is maturing, as well as when their fund is up within that seven and 10 year period.”
